GIEWS Country Brief: Tajikistan 04-October-2019

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

Cereals output estimated at near-average level in 2019

Near-average cereal imports forecast in 2019/20

Prices of wheat flour increased in September Cereals output estimated at near-average level in 2019

Harvesting of the 2019 winter and spring crops was completed in late August and end-September, respectively, under favourable weather conditions. The aggregate cereals output, mainly wheat, is estimated at near average 1.25 million tonnes. Production of wheat in 2019 is set at 830 000 tonnes, just above the five-year average, on account of adequate and well-distributed precipitation during the season. By contrast, maize output is estimated at 175 000 tonnes, about 10 percent below the average level due to a below-average area planted.

Sowing of the 2020 winter crops is ongoing under favourable weather conditions and it is expected to finalize by late November.

Near-average cereal imports forecast in 2019/20 The country relies heavily on imports to meet its cereal consumption needs and wheat represents more than 90 percent of the cereal imports.

Given the favourable output of the 2019 harvest, import requirements of cereals in the 2019/20 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, close to the five-year average level. Due to improved local milling capacities, imports of wheat grain have been increasing, while purchases of wheat flour have decreased by almost 90 percent during the last ten years.

Prices of wheat flour increased in September Retail prices of wheat flour remained virtually unchanged between April and August 2019, amid stable export quotations from Kazakhstan, the main wheat grain and wheat flour supplier to the country. Prices of wheat flour seasonally increased in September by about 8 percent.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations