Month: November 2022

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023 on November 29. The analysis reportedly summarizes economic developments in the Bank’s member nations in 2022 and provides key macroeconomic projections for the region’s countries for 2023 and 2024.

 

The report, in particular, notes that the region’s economies will continue adapting to the new environment.

 

EDB analysts have identified three main trends in the global economy. The first one is the record inflation not seen since the late 1970s. The second is a surge in central bank interest rates in both developed and developing countries. By November 2022, central bank interest rates in most developed countries had surpassed their 2010–2021 levels. The third is the weakening of global business activity. The world’s central banks are consciously sacrificing economic growth to prevent uncontrolled price increases in the future.

 

The report notes that economic developments in the EDB region have been mixed this year. As at the end of the year, the region-wide economic downturn could reach 2.3%, mainly due to expected GDP declines in Russia and Belarus by 3% and 4.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the economies of Central Asia’s nations are expected to grow in 2022 thanks to increased domestic demand and high export prices. The EDB’s baseline scenario projects Tajikistan’s GDP to increase by 7.5 percent, Kazakhstan’s 2.8%, and Kyrgyzstan’s 3.1%.

 

The report says the Eurasian economies’ external environment could deteriorate next year. The Bank analysts note the high probability of a recession in the Eurozone and the United States. Tightening financial conditions are expected to cause a decline in developed countries’ GDP in 2023. Evgeny Vinokurov, Chief Economist at the EDB, says: “This could be moderate – our baseline scenario expects GDP to fall by 0.3% in the United States and 0.6% in the Eurozone. China is forecast to see growth below 4.0%. As the world’s three biggest economies slow down, global GDP growth will decline from 2.4% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023.”

 

According to him, weaker economic activity will start to curb inflation next year. “We assume that signs of easing inflationary pressures will prompt developed countries’ central banks to end their monetary-policy-tightening cycle as early as the first half of 2023. We project the last Fed rate hike in December 2022 and the start of a rate cut cycle as early as Q2 2023. That said, we also assume that in the medium term the U.S. interest rate will be maintained around 3% and that the Fed will tolerate inflation above the current target of 2%.” Vinokurov added.

 

Bank analysts expect the region’s economies to continue adapting to the new environment. In terms of economic developments in 2023, Russia’s GDP is projected to decline by 2% while the other countries will see growth in their GDPs: Armenia by 4.2%; Belarus by 0.3%; Kazakhstan by 4.2%; Kyrgyzstan by 3.5%; and Tajikistan by 6.5%.

 

EDB analysts forecast that inflation in the Bank’s region will slow to 6.2% at the end of 2023 from 13.1% in 2022. However, inflation will continue remaining above central and national bank targets. A rather high inflation in the global economy will continue to have a pro-inflationary impact. The restructuring of production and logistics chains in Russia and Belarus will exert pressure on prices. Yet, the impact of these factors will gradually diminish, and price rises will slow down considerably. In 2023, inflation is projected at 4.6% in Armenia, 8.0% in Belarus, 7.8% in Kazakhstan, 5.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 6.0% in Russia, and 6.0% in Tajikistan.

 

Source: Asia-Plus

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a US$30 million grant to help strengthen disaster risk management in Tajikistan and reduce economic losses due to climate change and disasters caused by natural hazards, according to the ADB Tajikistan Residence Mission (TJRM).

 

“Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate change with more than 400 climate-induced incidents per year, such as floods, avalanches, and others, which severely affect people and the economy,” ADB Director General for Central and West Asia Yevgeniy Zhukov said.

 

He noted that ADB’s grant would enhance the country’s preparedness for disasters and ability to respond – while strengthening its overall resilience to climate change.

 

The project reportedly supplements an ongoing US$10 million grant approved by the Bank in 2018 to support the Tajikistan government’s efforts to mainstream disaster risk management in development planning. It will further strengthen the capacity of the Emergencies Committee under the Government of Tajikistan, the project’s executing agency, to manage natural hazards. The grant will also improve weather and disaster forecasting tools and establish an additional early warning system.

 

“Natural disasters disrupt livelihoods and displace people from their homes,” said ADB Natural Resources and Agriculture Economist Matthias Leitner. “ADB’s project will help build disaster-resilient shelters, strengthen the capacity of local communities and officials, and improve disaster response facilities in the Khatlon province.”

 

The disaster-resilient accommodation will be climate resilient and have reliable water and electricity supply, and facilities for the specific needs of women, children, and people with disabilities. The project will also improve social infrastructure in nearby villages including access roads, a bridge, power transmission lines, healthcare centers, and schools. Local communities and displaced people will get skills training including in agricultural innovation and crop production and negotiation skills, to strengthen their incomes and community resilience.

 

Since Tajikistan joined ADB in 1998, the bank has provided over US$2.5 billion in assistance to the country, including around US$1.9 billion in grants. ADB’s 2021–2025 country partnership strategy for Tajikistan focuses on three strategic priorities: structural reforms to enhance resource allocation and mobilization, improving labor productivity through human capital development, and fostering better livelihoods by investing in the land-linked economy.

 

Established in 1966, the Asian Development Bank is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.

 

Source: Asia-Plus

Presided over by President Emomali Rahmon, a government session took place on November 29 to review the results of work carried out over the first ten months of this year.

 

The Tajik president’s official website says the first deputy minister of industry and new technologies reported on the implementation of the decision of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on the program for the development of light Industry in Tajikistan for the period up to 2022.

 

It was reportedly emphasized that this program is implemented within the framework of the fourth strategic goal – rapid industrialization of the country, and is important for ensuring the development of the country’s economy due to the development of light industry.

 

The Program for the Development of Light Industry in Tajikistan for the period up to 2022 has been developed based on the provisions of the RT Law “On State Perspectives, Concepts, Strategies and Programs of Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Tajikistan”, the Industry Development Strategy for the period up to 2030, the Medium-Term Development Program of Tajikistan for 2016-2020, and the Government’s decision of January 23, 2018 on the results of socio-economic development of Tajikistan in 2017 and tasks for 2018.

 

It was noted that the volume of production of light industry products during the implementation of the Program had a tendency to increase year by year, from 2.7 billion somonis in 2018 to 4.1 billion somonis in 2021, which is a 1.5-fold increase compared to 2018.

 

According to the Tajik president’s official website, during the period of implementation of the industry program, i.e. 2018-2021 and 8 months of 2022, the forecast index of cotton thread was completed at 103.5%, sewing products 115.3%, socks and stockings 209.5%, knitted products 141.4%, shoes 101.1%, furniture 216.8%, and carpet 167.1%.

 

245 enterprises and workshops that were introduced into operation during the implementation of this program reportedly created 3872 new jobs. The activities of these enterprises and factories are focused on the processing of cotton, cotton fiber, leather, production of blanket cotton, sewing products, socks, polypropylene bags, shoes and furniture.

 

The implementation of the Government’s decision of June 3, 2014 on the development of hand-woven carpets and other folk crafts in Tajikistan reportedly provided an opportunity to establish educational-production centers in the territory of cities and districts across the country, and to strengthen the process of learning and developing folk crafts.

 

Currently, 8 enterprises are organized as legal entities and training and production centers for handicraft products are organized and operate regularly in 38 cities and districts. Crafts enterprises and centers produce satin and silk fabric, quilts, decorative bed sheets, embroidered pillows, lace, needlework, shirts, small jackets and other handicraft products and are registered in statistical reports.

 

The government members also discussed a number of bills that were submitted after discussion for consideration to Tajikistan’s lower chamber (Majlisi Namoyandagon) of parliament.

 

The government members also discussed the Strategy for the Development of Social Protection of the Population of Tajikistan for the period up to 2040, the Program of Statistical Work designed for 2023, the Program for the Development of Pasture in Tajikistan designed for 2023-2027, the Program for the Development of the Cinema of the Republic of Tajikistan designed for 2023-2027 and the Regulations of Presidential Scholarship Program “Durakhshandagon.”

 

Source: Asia-Plus

 

Rapid urban growth and sprawl in many developing regions, as well as the urban decline in the post-industrial developed world, place high demands on contemporary urban policymakers, managing authorities, and urban planners. While this is a huge challenge, the changing climate – especially in cities – places even greater demand on professionals to mitigate and adapt to climate change while enhancing the quality of life of urban dwellers.

 

The current multiplication of specialists cannot answer the core need for a professional with an overview of the issues of urban quality of life, with the ability to manage the development process and give leadership. Scientific knowledge about urban climate, pollution, ventilation and the implications of climate change needs to be integrated with urban planning and urban design while being mindful of practical planning and management barriers to implementation. Managing urban climate change in a sustainable manner is a vital need for the 21st Century and new professionals able to lead and manage this process are urgently needed.

 

In this context, launched in 2017, the two-year Master’s Degree program “Master in Urban Climate and Sustainability (MUrCS)” co-funded by the Erasmus+ Program of the European Union aims at preparing the specialists with integrating thematic knowledge on three subject-specific streams (Planning and Management informed by adaptation and mitigation Science). It further links these into a coherent curriculum to produce the next generation of thought leaders able to manage urban climate change in a sustainable manner.

 

This 2-year Master in Urban Climate and Sustainability (MUrCS) reportedly gives you a critical understanding of the complexity of urban sustainability and the need for local action to combat global climate change, offers several professional pathways in leading sustainable urban climate change adaptation/mitigation, and enables you to operate in senior positions – in both the public and the private sectors – to lead sustainable and climate-oriented planning.

 

MUrCS is reportedly open for both existing urban professionals as well as those with multidisciplinary environmental backgrounds.

 

The program is coordinated by the Glasgow Caledonian University (UK) in partnership with LAB University of Applied Sciences (Finland), the University of Huelva (Spain), and the University of Applied Sciences Dresden (Germany).

 

Application for 2023 is now open and all interested candidates can find more information about the program, eligibility criteria and access the application portal: https://murcs.eu/.

 

Source: Asia-Plus

Russia will increase the volume of duty-free supplies of oil products to Tajikistan in 2023. Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan Sharifa Khudobakhsh and First Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Pavel Sorokin, following a meeting in Moscow, signed a document on amending the schedule for the supply of oil products.

“In accordance with this document, compared to last year, the total volume of the indicative balance, including the volume of deliveries of motor gasoline and diesel fuel, has increased to the domestic market of Tajikistan,” the Ministry of Energy of Tajikistan noted.

The meeting also focused on issues related to the supply of the main types of oil products for 2023. Tajikistan has been receiving Russian fuels and lubricants on a preferential basis (without paying export customs duties) since 2013. It is noted that the main condition for the preferential supply of Russian oil products is the exclusion of re-export to third countries.

The volume of preferential energy carriers agreed for 2022 remained at the level of previous years – 830,000 tons. However, the actual import of preferential Russian fuels and lubricants in previous years did not exceed 600,000 tons.

 

Source: National information agency of Tajikistan