FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Drier than average weather conditions during season affected 2022 winter cereals
Slightly above average cereal output obtained in 2021
Prices of wheat flour rose sharply in March and April
Expected reduction in remittances inflows in 2022
Drier than average weather conditions affected 2022 winter cereals
Harvesting of the 2022 winter cereal crops (mainly wheat), which were planted between September and mid November 2021, just started. Below average precipitation amounts during the season, especially in February and April 2022, negatively affected crop conditions in some areas of the main producing Khatlon Region and Districts of Republican Subordination (DRS) Region (ASI map). As a result, yields of winter cereals are expected at slightly below average levels.
Planting of the 2022 spring wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from September, finalized in April, while planting of the 2022 maize crop, for harvest in October, is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions.
Slightly above average cereal output obtained in 2021
Harvesting of the 2021 cereal crops was completed last November. According to the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) carried out by FAO and WFP with technical support by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the Agency on Statistics (AoS) under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan ( full report ), the 2021 aggregate cereal output is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, 7 percent above the five year average level. Production of wheat is set at a near average level of 852 000 tonnes, while the outputs of maize and barley are estimated at 240 000 tonnes and 196 000 tonnes, respectively, well above the average levels.
Prices of wheat flour rose sharply in March and April
Retail prices of first grade wheat flour increased sharply between February and April 2022, reaching levels of over 30 percent higher than a year before. The high domestic prices reflect the elevated international wheat export quotations amid the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the introduction of export bans and quotas in several countries in the subregion, including Kazakhstan, the main wheat exporter to the country ( FPMA Policies ).
In April, prices of potatoes, another important food staple, declined by 15 percent on average since February 2022 and they were about 30 percent lower than a year earlier, reflecting a year on year larger domestic production.
Expected reduction in remittances inflows in 2022
In recent years, remittances accounted for about 30 percent of the country's Gross domestic product (GDP) and the majority originated from the Russian Federation. In 2022, the country is likely to experience a sharp reduction in remittances inflows, mainly due to the implementation of international sanctions against the Russian Federation, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Sanctions are expected to result in high unemployment rates and to negatively affect demand for goods and services in the Russian Federation, reducing work opportunities also for migrants. As a result, the food security situation of households that are highly dependent on remittances will likely deteriorate.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations