Day: February 6, 2023

An article entitled “Russians Beat 5-Year Record for Departing to Central Asia, Armenia, and Mongolia”, in particular, notes that Russians left their country for neighboring countries and CIS member nations 8.4 million times, which is 4.7 million cases more than in 2021 when there was COVID.

Russian nationals reportedly crossed the border on the way out 24.3 million times in total last year, 2.9 million cases more than in 2021. The most popular destinations were Abkhazia (recognized by Russia to be a separate nation from Georgia), Turkey, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Egypt. A total of 15.1 million departures were to these countries last year, according to Novaya Gazeta Europa.

Russia-neighboring countries and CIS member states that do not share a border with Russia (excluding Belarus and Moldova) faced a massive influx of Russian nationals last year: the number of people departed to those nations reportedly reached 8.4 million (130-percent increase compared to 2021)

According to the report, the influx of Russian to Tajikistan last year increased by 212 percent compared to 2021.

Despite its remoteness from Russia, Tajikistan has also become a place of migration for Russians. CABAR.asia reported on October 11 last year that tickets in the direction of Moscow-Dushanbe rose from 150 to 2000 US dollars. Rooms in hotels are booked for the coming weeks, and an unusually large number of Russians appeared on the streets. The arrival of foreigners also caused an increase in rental housing, as in other countries of Central Asia.

Meanwhile, “Russians Beat 5-Year Record for Departing to Central Asia, Armenia, and Mongolia” says the third quarter of the year when mobilization was declared saw most people leaving Russia. A total of 3.5 million people departed Russia to those countries between July and September, followed by 2.1 million between October and December.

Over the past five year, the influx of Russians has been record high to Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia.

The number of times Russian nationals departed to Israel reportedly doubled last year, growing to over 100,000.

The publication notes that this growth does not mean millions of Russians left the country forever. Some of them often return, and some might have crossed the border multiple times. However, demographers Yulia Florinskaya and Alexey Raksha estimated last year’s emigration wave to stand between 400,000 and 800,000 people.

Over 100,000 reportedly opted to stay in Georgia, and at least 100,000 more in Kazakhstan. A total of 50,000–100,000 people left for Serbia, and around 40,000 for Armenia. Israel, Kyrgyzstan, and the EU welcomed around 35,000 Russians each, they say.

Last year also saw massive growth in Russians leaving for Asia: Thailand, Sri-Lanka, and India. The record number of travels, even compared to pre-COVID years, was to the UAE.

The FSB also recorded 1.1 million departures to the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” in Q2 and Q3 of 2022. It is also reported that 470,000 Russians entered Ukraine last year.

Source: Asia-Plus

The WGC notes that gold plays an important part in central banks’ reserves management, and they are significant holders of gold. This gold reserve data – compiled using IMF IFS statistics – tracks central banks’ reported purchases and sales along with gold as a percentage of their international reserves.

The report entitled “Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2022”, in particular, notes that two years on from dropping to its lowest level in a decade, central bank demand has rebounded strongly. Last year reportedly saw the second consecutive y-o-y increase in demand from this sector, with net purchases totaling 1,136 tons.

The report notes that this marked a banner year for central bank buying: 2022 was not only the thirteenth consecutive year of net purchases, but also the second highest level of annual demand on record back to 1950, boosted by +400t demand in both Q3 and Q4.

The report says that regionally, the Middle East was an active buyer of gold during the year. Egypt (47t), Qatar (35t), Iraq (34t), the United Arab Emirates (25t) and Oman (2t) significantly boosted their gold reserves.

Central Asia reportedly also saw a healthy level of buying.

The WGC report says the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) last year increased its gold reserves by 4 tons.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan gold reserves in 2022 rose by 34 tons and 6 tons, respectively.

WGC experts highlighted geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation as key reasons for record demand for gold in 2022.

The WGC had previously noted that Tajikistan’s gold reserves remained unchanged at 17.19 tons in the first quarter of 2022 from 17.19 tons in the fourth quarter of 2021. A total cost of those 17.19 tons of gold was reportedly 1.1 billion U.S. dollars.

By July 1, 2022, Tajikistan’s gold reserves have reportedly reached the 8-month import coverage. An average monthly volume of Tajikistan’s imports over the first six months of this year had reportedly amounted to 358 million US dollars.

The World Gold Council is the market development organization for the gold industry. It works across all parts of the industry, from gold mining to investment, with the aim of stimulating and sustaining demand for gold. The World Gold Council is an association whose members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies. It helps to support its members to mine in a responsible way and developed the Conflict Free Gold Standard.

Source: Asia-Plus

The ADB resident mission in Tajikistan opened in 2003, and I am the 7th ADB country director here. I assumed the post on February 15, 2021 but physically arrived in Tajikistan in June 2021. Actually, it had been around 17 years since I last worked in Tajikistan (on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan power interconnection line).

- In 2018, it was decided that ADB cooperation with Tajikistan will be based on a grant basis. Will this arrangement continue in the foreseeable future? - Based on the IMF’s debt sustainability assessment, ADB moved to 100% grant financing for Tajikistan in 2018 from 50/50 grant/loan ratio during 2015–2017. If Tajikistan’s debt classification improves to allow concessional lending along with grants, we will move to blended assistance.

- ADB is the undisputed leader among the world's financial institutions in terms of investment in Tajikistan. How much investment has the Republic received in 25 years, and what projects over the years can ADB be proud of? - Since Tajikistan joined ADB in 1998, the bank has become the country’s largest multilateral development partner with over $2.5 billion in assistance, including over $1.8 billion in grants.

We have over 180 joint projects with the government of Tajikistan, and every project is important. It’s difficult to single-out one or two projects. The ADB-Tajikistan partnership has helped improve the country’s transport and energy infrastructure, support social development, overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, expand agricultural production, strengthen resilience to climate change, and enhance regional cooperation and trade.

Tajikistan ranks first among Central Asian countries in terms of climate change vulnerability

- Who and how determines the directions of ADB’s support? How are grant proposals prepared and do the proposals of Tajik experts pass international expertise? - We listen and coordinate with the government, development partners, civil society, and other stakeholders and jointly determine the directions of our support.

what-challenges-does-adb-address-in-tajikistan - Judging by the number of grants, a significant amount of funding in Tajikistan is aimed at increasing resilience to climate change and strengthening water supply and sanitation infrastructure. Is this correct and why? - ADB attaches great importance to addressing climate change and strengthening disaster resilience, which is reflected in our long-term corporate strategy: Strategy 2030. One of our seven corporate priority areas is “tackling climate change, building climate and disaster resilience, and enhancing environmental sustainability.”

ADB has two ambitious targets for actions on climate change. First, by targeting 75% of ADB committed operations that will be supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation by 2030; and second, climate finance from ADB’s own resources will reach $100 billion to 2030.

Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Central Asia and suffers from enormous negative effects. The impact of climate change is largely present through increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, unpredictability of precipitation, and changes to water regimes, caused in part by rapid snowmelt and glacier retreat owing to rising temperatures.

- Tell us about ADB contribution to the development of transport in Tajikistan? - For landlocked Tajikistan, connectivity with neighboring countries is essential for economic growth. But the country’s geographical constraints such as mountainous terrain, severe winters, and remoteness from international seaports and markets are a challenge.

ADB started its assistance to the transport sector of Tajikistan in late 1990s. To date, ADB has invested over $800 million in the sector. ADB projects have focused on rehabilitating major regional links and modernizing border crossings under the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program, improving road safety and maintenance, strengthening road asset management, and repairing rural roads to help reduce poverty.

Energy is among ADB priorities in Tajikistan

- Do non-governmental organizations participate in ADB activities? - ADB commits to working with civil society. CSOs, both operationally focused and advocacy organizations, work with ADB across several areas, such as: stakeholder engagement throughout the project cycle, implementation of ADB-supported projects, particularly in the delivery of social services, monitoring and evaluation, and policy design and review.

CSOs play an invaluable role in helping ADB to strengthen policies and operations and are crucial partners in the development process.

- In what directions will ADB cooperation with Tajikistan develop and what place will energy projects take in this cooperation? - ADB’s Country Partnership Strategy 2021–2025 for Tajikistan is aligned with ADB's Corporate Strategy 2030 and the country's National Development Strategy 2030. Guided by this, ADB pursues three strategic priorities: supporting structural reforms to enhance resource allocation and mobilization; improving labor productivity through human capital development; and fostering better livelihoods through investment in a land-linked economy.

Energy has been one of our priorities in Tajikistan. ADB’s total energy assistance to the country amounted to $585 million as of end 2021. ADB projects have focused on modernization of generation, transmission, and distribution facilities, sector restructuring and reforms, and developing regional energy market.

In 2020, ADB committed a $105 million grant program to accelerate the implementation of the ongoing reforms. The program includes the separation of the generation, transmission, and distribution businesses; debt restructuring; introduction of a new tariff methodology that ensures cost recovery; investments in metering and billing infrastructure; redesign of the fund-flow mechanism with a settlement system; and introducing five-year management contract in a newly established power distribution company.

Source: Asia-Plus